ATTENDANCE TRAJECTORY · DECISION SUPPORT

Turn today’s percentage into a credible path forward.

A privacy-aware ready reckoner for leaders, pastoral teams and family meetings. See what is mathematically attainable, how long recovery takes, and when a more honest milestone is needed.

Code names onlyNo pupil names, dates of birth or identifiers. Your working draft stays in this browser.

Pupil scenarios

Build your working list

Enter a code and current attendance to one decimal place.

2scenarios
2target open / met
0new milestone needed
90days remaining
Progress milestone

When 95% is no longer reachable, set an honest next step.

The main target does not disappear. A progress milestone is simply the next measurable review point on the way back.

  1. Check the ceiling.The tool shows the best possible year-end attendance.
  2. Choose a milestone.Select a pupil, then use the suggested figure or enter your own percentage below.
  3. Agree and review.Share the days and weeks required, record the support, and set a review date.
Code nameNowTarget runwayRecovery instructionActions
%
Good mathematical runway
76 full days15.2 school weeks
%
Target currently met
Protect the strong position5.5 day(s) headroom to year-end target

Active trajectory

P-104: the recovery curve

Good mathematical runway
Cumulative attendance
Full-attendance recovery curveProjected cumulative attendance if the pupil attends every remaining day.95% target
TodayFull-attendance days from nowYear end
Current91.2%8.8 day-equivalents absent to date
Best possible year-end95.4%If every remaining pupil day is attended
76 consecutive full days to 95%

That is about 15.2 school weeks, leaving 14 days of mathematical runway.

Optional pupil milestone

Set a progress milestone for P-104

Enter a percentage above the pupil’s current attendance and no higher than the 95.4% mathematical ceiling.

%
No milestone entered yet. The suggested figure is a guide, not an automatic decision.

Use the number to start a conversation, not end one. Explore the barriers behind absence, listen to the pupil and family, agree support, and review the plan. A lower milestone is not a lowered expectation—it is an honest next step.

FROM NUMBER TO SUPPORT

A three-step conversation that protects belonging.

Use this sequence with colleagues, pupils and families after reviewing the arithmetic.

01

Notice

“This is where the attendance pattern places us today. What does it look and feel like from your side?”

02

Understand

Explore health, SEND, anxiety, relationships, transport, routines and other barriers without blame.

03

Agree

Set a realistic next milestone, identify school and family actions, and fix an early review date.

LEARNING POINTS

Put the calculation inside an evidence-informed response.